Bitcoin fell off

Crypto #bitcoin 

The crypto market fell 3.84% to $3.76T over 24h, extending a 4% weekly loss. Main factors: Fed rate uncertainty, leveraged long liquidations, and bearish technical triggers.

Fed Policy Jitters – Powell’s mixed signals at Jackson Hole sparked volatility.

$217M Liquidations – Longs dominated (91% of 24h total) as BTC dropped below $110K.

Technical Breakdown – Market cap broke below key Fibonacci support at $3.74T.

Deep Dive

1. Macro Uncertainty (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Aug 25) highlighted labor market focus over inflation, initially boosting ETH (+10%) and XRP (+10%). However, markets reversed gains by Sunday as traders priced in delayed rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87.3% probability of a September rate cut, but crypto’s 24h correlation with Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) rose to +0.59, amplifying equity-driven volatility.

What it means: Crypto remains hypersensitive to macro liquidity expectations. Mixed Fed messaging created a “sell the news” effect despite dovish signals.

Watch for: September 16–17 FOMC meeting and August CPI data (Sep 10).

2. Derivatives Carnage (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Total crypto liquidations hit $217M in 24h (91% longs), with BTC alone seeing $198M liquidated. Perpetuals open interest rose 4.94% to $1.01T while funding rates plunged -63% – classic signs of over-leveraged longs getting squeezed.

What it means: High leverage (average 20–30x on major exchanges) magnified downside as BTC briefly crashed below $110K. ETH faced a 43K ETH ($190M) short that triggered stop-losses.

Watch for: Whether open interest resets below $1T – a break could signal deeper deleveraging.

3. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The total crypto market cap broke below critical Fibonacci support at $3.74T (78.6% retracement level). RSI(7) sits at 48.4 (neutral), but MACD shows bearish divergence with histogram at -26.46B.

What it means: The market failed to hold above the 50-day EMA ($3.87T), inviting technical sellers. Next support sits at $3.63T (2024 low).

Watch for: A close above $3.9T (50% Fib) to invalidate bearish structure.

Conclusion

Today’s decline reflects a perfect storm of macro hesitation, derivatives unwinding, and technical breakdowns. While Ethereum ETF inflows ($2.8B in August) and Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative provide long-term support, traders should monitor BTC’s $110K support and Fed commentary for near-term direction. Will institutional buyers return if the SEC greenlights XRP ETFs, or will token unlocks (JUP, OP, KMNO) add more sell pressure this week?